2019 Oscar Predictions - Who Will Win/Who Should Win

It's time to try to predict the Oscar winners ahead of next week's ceremony. The good news is the Academy caved and now will present all 24 categories on air. Below are my guesses on who I think will win, and in some cases, who should. 

Best Picture
Black Panther
A Star Is Born 
Roma
The Favourite
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
Green Book
BlacKkKlansman
Who will win: Roma
Who should win: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman or The Favorite
I would be happy with either of those three winning Best Picture as they are far more deserving films than Roma and Green Book, the two apparent front runners. 

Best Actress
Glenn Close: The Wife
Lady Gaga: A Star Is Born
Yalitza Aparicio: Roma
Olivia Colman: The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Who will win: Glenn Close
Who should win: Olivia Colman
Colman is still in the running but I fear the Academy will give Glenn a career Oscar over Colman even though she gave the better performance by a long shot. Sound familiar? *cough* Gary Oldman

Best Actor
Christian Bale: Vice
Bradley Cooper: A Star Is Born
Viggo Mortensen: Green Book”
Willem Dafoe: At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek: Bohemian Rhapsody
Who will win: Rami Malek
Who should win: Christian Bale.
I'm not sure how Malek became the front runner here when Bale and Cooper came out so strong in their films. But apparently there's no stopping this. 


Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams: Vice
Marina de Tavira: Roma
Regina King: If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone: The Favourite
Rachel Weisz: The Favourite
Who will win: Regina King
Who should win:?
I haven't seen If Beale Street Could Talk so the front running performance is the only one I'm missing. King is an excellent actress so I hope she wins on that, but having not seen her performance it's hard to judge. I'd be happy with Stone, Weisz or Adams winning too. I still don't know why de Tavira is even there.  

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali: The Green Book
Adam Driver: BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott: A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell: Vice
Who will win: Mahershala Ali
Who should win: Adam Driver
I like Ali's performance in Green Book a lot, I just prefer Driver and BlacKkKlansman. Even though I was luke warm on Green Book, this is the only win I'd be okay with for that film.


Best Director
Spike Lee: BlacKkKlansman
Pawel Pawlikowski: Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimo: The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón: Roma
Adam McKay: Vice
Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Who should win: Spike Lee
Cuaron is going to win for his very singular memory of his childhood instead of Lee winning for a film that is still relevant in this day and age. *sigh*

 Best Original Screenplay
"First Reformed”
“Green Book”
“Roma”
“The Favourite”
“Vice”  
Who will and should win: The Favourite
While I tihnk Roma will be quite unstoppable I don't see it actually winning for its screenplay. Not when The Favourite is in the same category. 

Best Adapted Screenplay
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs” 
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?” 
“If Beale Street Could Talk” 

“A Star Is Born” 
Who will and should win: BlacKkKlansman
I don't see anyone else winning this and rightfully so.

Best Animated Film
“Incredibles 2” 
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Isle Of Dogs”
Who will and should win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
No contest. 

Best Cinematography
“Cold War”
“The Favourite”
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born” 
Who will win: Roma
Who should win: The Favourite
Roma's cinematography is the best part about it, but I just prefer The Favourite and I haven't seen Cold War or Never Look Away. 

Best Visual Effects
“Avengers: Infinity War”
“Christopher Robin”
“First Man”
“Ready Player One”
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
Who will and should win: Avengers: Infinity War
For some reason Black Panther kept winning over Infinity War elsewhere but since it's not nominated here I think Infinity War will finally win the visual effects Oscar which will be far overdue for a Marvel film, if I'm honest. 


Best Foreign Language Film
“Capernaum”
“Cold War” 
“Never Look Away”
“Roma”
“Shoplifters”
Who will win: Roma
Who should win:?
I haven't seen any of these aside from Roma. Since it's a Best Picture frontrunner, part of me thinks they may give this to something else, but voters are so obsessed with it, it will likely win both. 


Best Documentary Feature
“Free Solo” 
“Minding The Gap” 
“Of Fathers and Sons” 
“RBG”
“Hale County This Morning, This Evening”
Who will win: Free Solo
Who should win: RBG
I've actually only seen RBG so that's what I'm rooting for, but Free Solo seems to be winning more than that is, so I think it likely does the same here. 

Best Documentary Short Subject
“Black Sheep”
“End Game”
“Lifeboat”
“A Night at the Garden”
“Period. End of Sentence.”
Who will win: Lifeboat
Who should win:Life Boat or Period. End of Sentence
UPDATE In my original post I said I hadn't seen any of these, well turns out they're all available online so now I have. I still think Lifeboat is going to win, though I'd be happy with Period. End of Sentence winning too. I have no idea how A Night at the Garden got Oscar nominated at all. That's kind of a joke when you look at other docs that were snubbed for various reasons. 

Best Costume Design
“The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
“Black Panther”
“The Favourite”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
Who will and should win: Black Panther
Period pieces always win here so I'm hoping they finally go out of the norm and give it to Black Panther. 


Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Border”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Vice”
Who will and should win: Vice

 Best Film Editing
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Green Book”
“The Favourite”
“Vice” 
Who will and should win: Vice
Green Book as a Best Pic front runner could take this even though...why, but I think Vice is the clear winner since editing was so apparent. 


Best Sound Mixing
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
“A Star Is Born”
Who will: Bohemian Rhapsody
Who should win: First Man

Best Production Design:
“Black Panther”
“First Man” 
“The Favourite” 
“Mary Poppins Returns” 

“Roma” 
Who will win: The Favourite
Who should win: Black Panther
This one I'm torn, I think The Favourite is the likely choice but Black Panther's is so good. 

Best Sound Editing
“A Quiet Place”
“Black Panther”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“First Man”
“Roma”
Who will win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Who should win: First Man
Unfortunate gut feeling. 


Best Animated Short Film
“Animal Behaviour”
“Bao”
“Late Afternoon”
“One Small Step”
“Weekends”
Who will win: Bao
Who should win: Late Afternoon
UPDATE Found all four of these (I had seen Bao) online as well. While I think Bao will win for being a Pixar darling, Late Afternoon is an absolute gem. That's my favorite of the bunch.


Best Live Action Short Film
“Detainment”
“Fauve”
“Marguerite”
“Mother”
“Skin”
Who will and should win: Marguerite 
UPDATE: I watched all of these aside from Detainment and Skin, and I still stand by Maruerite as the winner. It's shockingly the least depressing of the bunch. 


Best Original Score
“Black Panther”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
Who will win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Who should win: That or Black Panther
I love Black Panther's score, but even though I haven't sen Beale Street the score is on youtube and it's lovely. I'm sure it goes well with the film. 

Best Original Song:
"All The Stars" - "Black Panther"
"I'll Fight" - "RBG"
"Shallow" - "A Star Is Born
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" - "Mary Poppins Returns"
"When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Who will win: Shallow
Who should win: All The Stars
I'd love it if All The Stars won because I think it's the best song here, but Shallow is an excellent song as well and they made brilliant use of it in the film's trailer. I just think All The Stars has better lyrics. 

26 comments:

  1. I think Roma will win Best Picture as I'm just hoping Green Book nor Bohemian Rhapsody don't win. I would be happy if Black Panther won.

    I'm going for Olivia Colman and Regina King all the fucking way and yes to Adam Driver as well.

    I like "Shallow" too but I want "All the Stars" to win as well. WAKANDA FOREVER!!!!

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    1. Shallow needed one more verse. I think I'm salty because I think Always Remember Us This Way is the best song in ASIB.

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  2. I just watched Bohemian Rhapsody today and it’s a good movie and he does a good job as Freddie Mercury but I was not bowled over by it. I much prefer BlacKkKlansman which is an excellent film. I also feel Black Panther is better but my vote would go to BlacKkKlansman. I still have to see Roma which seems to be the front runner but I bet Spike Lee will win for Best Director. I really do want to see Vice because I love Christian Bale and he might very well win best actor. I don’t even remember the song from Black Panther at all but I do like the song from A Star is Born which I hope to see next week.

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    1. I really hope you're right about Lee, but all the voters seem to be slobbing all over Cuaron's knob.

      All the Stars is the first song they play during the credits in Black Panther.

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  3. Black Panther should win for Best Picture 🖤

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  4. I'm just so baffled that voters have actually SEEN First Man and it isn't the LOCKED winner for the sound categories. Makes no sense at all. First Man getting snubbed like crazy makes no sense, either, but when you have the decency to actually nominate it in categories is SLAYS you should, you know, give it the deserved win.

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    1. I had issues with First Man, but none of them were with the Sound, I thought back when I saw it they'd for sure be winning these. Sad out the tides have turned.

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  5. I'll be raising a glass for Adam Driver when he misses out again this weekend, sob. There's always next year!

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    1. Yep! If they push The Report, hopefully we'll be seeing him in the Lead Actor category next year!

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  6. I sooo hope you're right about "Roma" winning Best Picture. Outside of it no other nominee finished in my Top 20 from last year. I liked a couple of them, but Best Pic? nope.

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  7. This is gonna be the worst Oscars ever. Malek...just why...

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    1. Oh definitely. Thankfully I'll booze my way through it.

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  8. Yeah, Malek and Roma are looking like unstoppable juggernauts. I still need to watch both of those. Hopefully, I'll get to them before the ceremony. If not, oh well.

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  9. Roma is a shoe-in for Best Picture and Best Director. I just hope Olivia Colman wins Best Actress, that's my dream

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    1. I think so too. I also hope Olivia wins, that would be amazing.

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  10. Interesting choices! We all have lots of love for Alfonso Cuaron, ain't we?
    Anyway, is it possible to subscribe to your blog via email, Brittani?

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    1. I just added a "follow by email" option on the left hand side, underneath my "blogs I love" links

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  11. Great breakdown! I really hope The Favourite can win screenplay, and it would be so cool to see Colman win as well. I would also love for A Star Is Born to win something other than song. We shall see!

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    1. I know it's a long shot but I'll continue to hope.

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  12. Awesome picks!! I lost my voice from screaming when Moonlight won over La La Land. I would genuinely pass out if there was an upset in any of the major categories - especially if Black Panther or Blackkklansman won. That would just be amazing. The only category where I'd be happy if any of the nominees won is Best Supporting Actress. lol

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    1. The amount of yelling I will do if there's a Best Picture upset...oh man lol

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  13. Agree with your choices Coleman should win over Close and Lee should win over Cuaron.

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