2018 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win

We're almost a week away from March 4th ceremony. There's a chance that I won't be able to watch live which is currently gutting me at the moment. Time will tell. Until then, here are my predictions on who I think should win, and in some cases, who should win.

Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who should win: Three Billboards, Lady Bird, or Get Out
I know The Shape of Water is picking up steam but I still don't think it has a realistic chance of bumping Three Billboards, which is fine with me. 

Best Lead Actor
Timothรฉe Chalamet, “Call Me by Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”
Who will win: Gary Oldman
Who should win: Kaluuya or Chalamet
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz with this category, I'm sorry but the youngins were better than Oldman this year. I love Oldman, don't get me wrong, this is just a bad year for a career Oscar.

Best Lead Actress
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Who will win: Frances McDormand
Who should win: Saoirse Ronan
I'd put Margot Robbie over Frances too, but I'm always team Saoirse. I wish she had a chance at winning. 

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Who will and should win: Sam Rockwell
No competition. This is his and should only be his. 

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Lesley Manville, “Phantom Thread”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Who will win: Allison Janney
Who should win: Laurie Metcalf
I still can't believe Metcalf is being robbed this season.

Best Director
“Dunkirk,” Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
“Lady Bird,” Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro
Who will win: Guillermo del Toro
Who should win: Christopher Nolan
I mean, if we're doing career Oscars this year, where's Nolan's? I like The Shape of Water, but directing wise, del Toro would come in last in these nominees. 

Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Who will and should win: Coco
Fuck you, Boss Baby

Best Live Action Short
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
Who will win: DeKalb Elementary
Who should win: ?
I haven't seen any of these so I'm guessing. I also mistakenly had these labeled as the animated shorts in my original post and I'm too lazy to fix it. 

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Who will win: Call Me By Your Name
Who should win: The Disaster Artist
You all know my love for The Disaster Artist but no way CMBYN doesn't win this.

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,
Who will win: Three Billboards
Who should win: Get Out

I'm really torn here. Part of me thinks the Best Picture winner needs to win this award too, but on the other hand, no one should be winning other than Jordan Peele. He truly had the most original screenplay. I'm torn. This could go either way. 

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water
Who will and should win: Blade Runner 2049
Finally Roger Deakins is the front runner. I will murder my TV if he doesn't take this. 

Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Icarus
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Who will and should win: Strong Island
I know Faces Places is popular right now but Strong Island was really something else and would be a worthy winner. Last Men in Aleppo was a great doc too, but I can see this not winning since The White Helmets won Doc Short before and this is about the same thing. 

Best Documentary Short Subject
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Who will win: Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Who should win:?
Another one I'm guessing because I haven't seen any. 

Best Animated Short Film
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Who will win: Lou
Who should win: ?
Another guess. It's Pixar, it's got a chance, right? Though Garden Party actually looks the best. 

Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman (Chile)
The Insult (Lebanon)
Loveless (Russia)
On Body and Soul (Hungary)
The Square” (Sweden)
Who will win: The Insult
Who should win: On Body and Soul
I actually have no idea who's going to win this. I've only seen OBAS and The Square - which definitely should not win. The other three sound like great movies. I give Lebanon the edge because that's the one I hear people talking about the most. Though really, On Body and Soul is great and it's on Netflix. 

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who will win: Baby Driver
Who should win: Dunkirk
Baby Driver was a bad movie with excellent editing. I think it wins here, though Dunkirk should.

Sound Editing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Who will and should win: Dunkirk
I think Dunkirk, The Last Jedi, and Blade Runner all would be worthy winners but this is one I think Dunkirk takes home. 

Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Who will and should win: Dunkirk
See previous comment about sound editing, it applies here too.

Production Design
Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Who will and should win: The Shape of Water


Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Who will and should win: The Shape of Water

Best Original Song
Mighty River - Mudbound
Mystery of Love - Call Me by Your Name
Remember Me - Coco
Stand Up for Something - Marshall
This Is Me - The Greatest Showman
Who will win: Remember Me
Who should win: Mighty River
Honestly, I'm not crazy about any of these songs. It would be nice if Mighty River won, but I don't think it will. This Is Me is catchy but not the best song from The Greatest Showman. 

Makeup and Hair
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Wonder
Who will win: Darkest Hour
Who should win: Wonder


Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Who will win: The Shape of Water
Who should win: Phantom Thread
I do think Phantom Thread has a shot at this, but I expect Shape to be showered with love, especially if it misses out on Best Picture. 

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Kong: Skull Island,
War For the Planet of the Apes
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Who will win: Blade Runner 2049
Who should win: War for the Planet of the Apes
The BAFTAs voted for Blade, and if there's a big overlap of voters I think the same will happen here. Of course, that is wrong because no one but War should be winning this. LOOK AT THE WET FUR! A film doesn't have to have pretty colors to have astounding CGI. Please for the love of God give Apes this Oscar. 

20 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. I haven't seen it, but I'd be shocked if I liked it more than Coco.

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  2. I have a feeling they're going to split director/best picture, but I want Nolan to nab it too. Rooting for Blade Runner for the cinematography win.

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    1. I think so too, but I wish it were Nolan.

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  3. I find that the most stupid nomination this year is Dunkirk for best score. That score was beyond irritating and took away from this flick. The editing is gimmicky and I found this film not all that great actually. The biggest faux pas was seeing the new condos and glass building near the shore when one of the leads was walking o; the beach and later from the cockpit of the airplane. I am an oldy, I guess, so I loved The Darkest Hour and will hope Gary Oldman wins. I have to see the other films so I can’t say much more. I would love to know which films and actors plus anything else you think of, that should have been nominated but were not. I would also love if you revisit The Darkest Hour...about 10 years later and see if you think the same way since you saw way too many shows with Churchill in it.

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    1. I disagree on Dunkirk's score, I liked it. I can't imagine every revisiting Darkest Hour personally, it was just such a bore. Even if I hadn't seen a better Churchill performance in THe Crown, it's still just a bunch of old dudes yelling.

      I really wanted James Franco to be nominated for Best Actor. He gave the best performance this year, IMO. I would've put Hugh Jackman for Login in there too. And I also think Wind River should have at least a best picture nomination.

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  4. I just want Sam to win and I want this season to be over because it was exhausting lol

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  5. I agree, fuck Boss Baby. As for best director, I don't care who wins as I just like all of the choices yet I want Nolan to win it though I think it's going to be Guillermito.

    For Best Actor, give it to Daniel Day-Lewis while I think Sally Hawkins should get Best Actress. Sam Rockwell for Best Supporting Actor and Alison Janney for Best Supporting Actress.

    And Roger Deakins better win Cinematography. He's overdue!!!!!

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    1. If Deakins doesn't win, I may lose it. lol

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  6. I think everyone wants Nolan to win. He deserves it so much!

    I really hope someone who isn't Oldman wins.

    I'd love Faces Places to win. I haven't seen Strong Island yet though.

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    1. I've heard really good things about Faces Places, but I haven't seen it yet. I'd love for an Oldman upset too. lol

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  7. I love your format of Oscar predictions, Brittani! I feel like this year I haven't seen enough Oscar-nominated films to make predictions, but hey who's to say I can't do it anyway right? ;) Yeah I think Frances McDormand will probably win, I haven't seen Three Billboards but sounds like it's an outstanding performance and she's a fantastic actress.

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    1. Three Billboards is great and she's great in it, I just think Saoire and Margot were a bit stronger.

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  8. As someone who thoroughly detests "Three Billboards", thinks "Get Out" is one of the over-rated movies in Oscar history, and thinks "The Shape of Water" has some major storytelling flaws, well..the Oscars aren't shaping up to be an exciting night. I do agree with you on Ronan, Metcalf, and Nolan. None of them will win. All three should. Also rooting hard for Deakins. That's the one category that has a majority of nominees (minus "Darkest Hour") that deserve to be there. Otherwise Oscar night will be a head-scratching and suspense-free evening.

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    1. This comment fell in my spam folder and I just now noticed it, but hey you were right about it being a suspense free evening!

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  9. I saw Darkest Hour so I can trash it now, too. ๐Ÿ˜‚

    It's was actually worse than I expected. Not only it was boring with zero tension but also it was pretty messy directing and script in my opinion. And Oldman looked nothing like Churchill so I really hope they don't win best makeup, it's just laughable.

    Aaaand Oldman wasn't actually that great or even good as Churchill. I much preferred John Lithgow in The Crown, as we've said. And I actually love Churchill in movies and WWII, even bought the book it's based on for my dad last Christmas. So I was expecting to be at least entertained, but nope.

    Alright, *end Darkest Hour rant.*

    Best Lead Actress this year is so strong, I love all performances. Except maybe Streep, but then I was also bored out of my mind in The Post.

    Franco was so robbed. The best lead actor category is pretty weak this year. I like Chalamet and Kaluuya too, even DDL, but eh, they weren't outstanding for me... haven't seen Denzel's.

    I think our twitter feeds will explode when Rockwell wins, I can't wait ๐Ÿ˜‚

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    1. So much yes to your Darkest Hour comments! lol I think I was generous in giving it a C-.

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  10. Great work! I love that Best Picture and Best Director aren’t locks. That makes it more fun to watch. I’m honestly surprised that Ronan doesn’t have a better shot at winning. I thought the buzz from Lady Bird would’ve transitioned directly to her.

    The Film Twitter backlash if Three Billboards wins screenplay over Get Out and Lady Bird... It’ll be such a joy to watch.

    Is Deakins the frontrunner?! I’m so nervous for him!

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    1. Film Twitter backlash...I don't want to deal with that right now. lol

      He'd better be the front runner. lol

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