2025 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win; Who Should Win

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I can't believe the Oscars are already this Sunday! I'll likely miss the first half hour or so of the ceremony due to my son's sports schedule, but I'll be following along and tweeting on BlueSky. Below are who I think is going to win, and in some cases, who should win. 

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
I’m Still Here
The Substance
Wicked
Who will win: Conclave
Who should win: That, Anora or Dune: Part II
We have a race! Since BAFTA and SAG both went for Conclave, I'm going in that direction too. I know a lot of people say Anora is still in it, and that would be a great win, but I still feel Conclave is stronger. 

Best Director
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Sean Baker – Anora
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Who will win: Brady Corbet
Who should win: Coralie Fargeat
It really could go between Baker or Corbet. Baker has been Oscar nominated before, and it could be "his time" but The Brutalist is a Director's movie, so Corbet winning here makes sense. I'm not confident with this pick, but we'll go for it. 

Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Who will and should win: Demi Moore
Mikey could be a threat but I think Moore is the more likely win. She has the "better" story. 

Best Actor
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Who will win: Adrien Brody
Who should win: Colman Domingo
Timothee Chalamet winning at SAG gave me hope that maybe Brody isn't a lock, but he's still probably winning. In a perfect world, Domingo would be sweeping this category. 

Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande - Wicked
Felicity Jones - The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
Who will and should win: Zoe Saldaña
Nothing is stopping Zoe from getting her category fraud Oscar. I love that she's winning, I just wish it had been in Lead where it belongs. 

Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov - Anora
Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
Who will and should win: Kieran Culkin
An Emmy and an Oscar back to back? Kieran is the top Culkin now, right?

Best Original Screenplay
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance
Who will and should win: A Real Pain
This is my No Guts No Glory pick. Realistically, I think there is where Anora wins, but if we're talking who has the tightest screenplay from start to finish (discounting Sept 5 because I haven't seen it) It's A Real Pain.

Best Adapted Screenplay
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
Who will and should win: Conclave

Best Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu
Who will win: The Brutalist
Who should win: Dune: Part Two

Best Original Score
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Who will and should win: The Brutalist
I've come around to The Brutalist's score. At first I thought it had 40 seconds of great music, then it was by the books, but it grew on me. 

Best Original Song
“El Mal” - Emilia Pérez
“The Journey” - The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird” - Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” - Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late” - Elton John: Never Too Late
Who will win: El Mal
Who should win - Like A Bird
I just want Sing Sing to be an Oscar winner. 

Best Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
September 5
Wicked
Who will and should win: Conclave 
Although part of me wants to give this to Anora for the cut after all the screaming alone. 

Best Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Who will win: Wicked
Who should win: Dune Part Two

Best Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Who will and should win: Wicked

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Who will and should win: The Substance 

Best Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Who will and should win: Dune: Part Two

Best Visual Effects
Dune Part II
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Alien: Romulus
A Better Man
Wicked
Who will win: Dune: Part Two
Who should win: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
You knew I was going to root for the apes here...

Best International Feature
Flow - Latvia
I'm Still Here - Brazil
Emilia Perez - France
The Seed of the Sacred Fig - Germany
The Girl With The Needle - Denmark
Who will win: Emilia Perez
Who should win: Any of the others
Emilia has been sweeping all season. Maybe the Karla controversy will make it lose some votes, but I doubt it. The industry loves this movie despite 4 other ones that are better. I'll still hope for an I'm Still Here upset. 

Best Animated Feature
Flow
Inside Out 2
The Wild Robot
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Who will win: The Wild Robot
Who should win: Memoir of a Snail
I think Flow has lost some steam since the Globes so I'm going with The Wild Robot. 

Best Documentary Feature
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Who will win: Black Box Diaries
Who should win: No Other Land
Black Box Diaries is great, but No Other Land seems like such a clear winner and it's crazy that it hasn't won anything. I preferred Black Box Diaires and Sugarcane over No Other Land, but just based on how Oscar normally goes, I'm shocked it isn't a shoo-in. 

Best Animated Short
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
Who will win Wander to Wonder
Who should win: Magic Candies
Magic Candies was my easy favorite but Wander to Wonder has a BAFTA and will probably repeat here. This category aside from Yuck! is pretty stacked. 

Best Live-Action Short
A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Who will win: A Lien
Who should win: I'm Not A Robot
I cannot stress how great I'm Not A Robot but with the political climate right now, I see something like A Lien winning. I really hope I'm wrong here because I adored I'm Not A Robot and I'd love to see them win. 

Best Documentary Short
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Who Will Win: Instruments of a Beating Heart
Who should win: Death By Numbers
This is tough. Incident is another I could see winning here. Death by Numbers was the most compelling to me, but it was VERY hard to find and I know Oscar voters get everything very easily to watch, but because it feels underseen to me, I don't feel confident in picking it to win. 

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