2023 Screen Actors Guild Predictions: Who Will Win, Who Should Win
The Screen Actor's Guild Awards are one week away, so it's time to try to predict the winners! When this post goes up, the BAFTAs will also be going on, but I don't have to write this after the BAFTAs reveal their winners, even though that's the smarter thing to do. So we're going to guess early. Here's who I think will win, and in some cases who should win instead.
Ensemble Cast in a Motion Picture
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who should win: Anyone but The Fabelmans
I think this is going to help determine our Best Picture trajectory. Frankly, I love all these nominations minus the Fabelmans but I'm leaning towards EEOAA. I think it would be great if Women Talking or Banshees could take it here, but I just don't feel as safe betting on that.
Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Austin Butler, “Elvis”
Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Bill Nighy, “Living”
Adam Sandler, “Hustle”
Who will win: Brendan Fraser
Who should win: Colin Farrell
I really think Farrell deserves to win this overall, and I think he'll win at BAFTA, but for some reason I'm no sold on him winning here. I feel like Fraser has the story his fellow actors will prefer more.
Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Cate Blanchett, “TÁR”
Viola Davis, “The Woman King”
Ana de Armas, “Blonde”
Danielle Deadwyler, “Till”
Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Who will win: Cate Blanchett
Who should win: Michelle Yeoh
I want this to be Yeoh's Oscar year but something tells me Cate's fellow actors are going to go for her here. Not that it wouldn't be deserved, she's fantastic in Tar, but she's already a 2 time Oscar Winner and Michelle is a first time nominee. I think it should go to her. Maybe Danielle or Viola could win in a shocking revenge vote sort of way for how wrong the Academy got Best Actress, but I'm taking the safe bet with Cate.
Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Paul Dano, “The Fabelmans”
Brendan Gleeson, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Good Nurse”
Who will win: Ke Huy Quan
Who should win: Paul Dano
Key is the only acting lock, but I'm a Paul Dano stan. No apologies from me.
Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Hong Chau, “The Whale”
Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Jamie-Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Stephanie Hsu, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Who will and should win: Angela Bassett
I love all of these nominees and would be happy for any of them to win, but I think Angela wins here.
Ensemble in a Drama Series
Better Call Saul
The White Lotus
Who will win: The White Lotus
Who should win: Better Call Saul
The SAGs are hard to predict in the TV categories. I feel like the way actors doesn't always match the way critics/film journalists go. Based on that, I'm not super comfortable with my White Lotus guess. For all I know they go for The Crown again, but it feels like the most talked about show of the nominees, so I'm sticking to it.
Male Actor in a Drama Series
Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”
Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man”
Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
Adam Scott, “Severance”
Who will and should win: Bob Odenkirk
This is a no guts no glory pick for me. It's insane Odenkirk hasn't won anything for Better Call Saul. Someone has to notice, right?
Female Actor in a Drama Series
Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”
Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
Julia Garner, “Ozark”
Laura Linney, “Ozark”
Who will win: Jennifer Coolidge
Who should win: Zendaya
The Ozark ladies will probably cancel each other out, and Jennifer Coolidge seems to be campaigning a lot harder than Zendaya is, so for that reason I think she's winning.
Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Only Murders in the Building
Who will and should win: Abbott Elementary
I love this ensemble and hope they win big here like they did at the Emmys.
Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short, “Only Murders in the Building”
Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Who will and should win: Jeremy Allen White
Again, the rule of vote splitting, and Hader didn't give a good comedic performance in the last season of Barry, he gave a good dramatic one.
Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”
Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”
Jean Smart, “Hacks”
Who will and should win: Quinta Brunson
Part of me wants to go with Smart as the much loved veteran or Applegate as another much loved veteran who may not be making many more red carpter appearances per her own admission, but I'm sticking with Quinta. Abbott has been such a success.
Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Steve Carell, “The Patient”
Taron Edgerton, “Blackbird”
Sam Elliott, “1883”
Paul Walter Houser, “Blackbird”
Evan Peters, “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Who will and should win: Evan Peters
I haven't seen 1883 but all the other performances are very solid. Still, Peters is by far the most memorable so I see him winning here.
Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Emily Blunt, “The English”
Jessica Chastain, “George & Tammy”
Julia Garner, “Inventing Anna”
Niecy Nash-Betts, “Dahmer – Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Amanda Seyfried, “The Dropout”
Who will and should win: Amanda Seyfried
Julia Garner would be a great win too, but I see Seyfried's well deserved streak continuing.