2022 Oscar Predictions. Who Will Win, Who Should Win.
The Oscars are a week away! Now is the time to share my official picks. My only hope at this point is hopefully I don't bomb as hard as I did during the SAGs. Below are the nominees, who I think will win and in some cases, who should win instead.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Who will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who should win: The Banshees of Inisherin
Look, EEAAO is a good movie and I will be pleased as punch when an oddball sci fi film like this takes the top price, but for me personally I think Banshees is the best film here.
Best Director
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Todd Field – TÁR
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
Ruben Ostlund – Triangle of Sadness
Who will win: The Daniels
Who should win: Martin McDonagh
Same reason for Best Picture, I just preferred Banshees.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who will and should win: Michelle Yeoh
I don't feel as confident with this one, but I'm going with my heart. Yeoh deserves to win this Oscar. Prevailing at the SAGs gave me the push to predict her over Blanchett here.
Best Actor
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Bill Nighy – Living
Who will win: Brendan Fraser
Who should win: Colin Farrell
This one is hard. Fraser won SAG, Butler won BAFTA and GG and Farrell won the other GG. I'm still shocked Farrell didn't even win at BAFTA and I refuse to consider predicting Butler over him out of petty spite. I think Fraser will repeat, but know I will scream at the top of my lungs of Farrell "upsets."
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who will win: Kerry Condon
Who should win: all of them honestly
This is another tough one that has had a different winner at each big awards show. My logic on this is I can't see Banshees of Inisherin going home with nothing. EEAAO will cancel each other out, Chau is not a contender and there's plenty academy voters who hate all things super hero, so that leaves Kerry and her BAFTA win.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who will win: Ke Huy Quan
Who should win: Barry Keoghan or Brian Tyree Henry
Ke has been giving great speeches and when he wins here, he'll give another one and I'll be happy for him but I just don't think this is a great performance. Especially against Yeoh and Hsu. I'm sorry. I like to see him winning on principal, but compared to the other people in this category (minus Hirsch who really shouldn't be there at all) I just prefer the other performances.
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness
Who will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who should win: The Banshees of Inisherin
I really want Banshees to win this but EEAAO has DGA, WGA, PGA and SAG. I really don't think there's denying it's taking this now.
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Who will and should win: Women Talking
Another I'm not super confident about, especially with how well All Quiet has been doing, but I want it to win. The screenplay is perfection.
Best Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Who will win: Gillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Who should win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
*sigh* I love you, Marcel.
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes
All the Beauty And the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
A House Made Of Splinters
Navalny
Who will win: Navalny
Who should win: Fire of Love
I was so sure Fire of Love would be sweeping this season, but Navalny is really coming out strong during the voting period, so I think it has the edge.
Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
Who will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who should win: That or The Quiet Girl
I think All Quiet has this in the bag, but I wouldn't mind my favorite underdog The Quiet Girl winning too. All Quiet was excellent and will be a worthy winner if it takes it.
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
TÁR
Who will and should win: All Quiet on the Western Front
I think Tar would be a fun win, but I see All Quiet taking this one as well. It's going to take home more than one trophy.
Best Costume Design
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Who will win: Elvis
Who should win: Babylon
I don't think Elvis should win here, and I feel like Babylon could also be in play, but I'm predicting Babylon to win two others and I can't see it taking home 3 when it didn't even get a Best Picture nomination.
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Who will win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who should win: Tar or Top Gun: Maverick
I think EEAAO will take this along with best picture. It's tough because this is a strong category (aside from Elvis)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Who will win: Elvis
Who should win: The Batman
Elvis being the frontrunner here fucking PAINS me, but it is what it is.
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Who will and should win: Babylon
It's the flashiest and I think it has the edge over Elvis here.
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Who will win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who should win: Top Gun: Maverick
I have a feeling Top Gun is going home empty handed because All Quiet has taken a lot of its momentum.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of the Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Who will win: Avatar: The Way of the Water
Who should win: Top Gun: Maverick
James Cameron's CGI blue people will prevail much to my chagrin. It would be funny if they lost after winning every other Visual Effects award out there.
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Who will and should win: Babylon
Look, Babylon's score is practically a character of its own. It's easily the most memorable score of the year.
Best Original Song
Tell it Like a Woman – “Applause”
Top Gun: Maverick – “Hold My Hand”
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – “Lift Me Up”
RRR – “Naatu Naatu”
Everything Everywhere All At Once – “This Is A Life”
Who will win: Naatu Naatu
Who should win: That or Lift Me Up
Naatu Naatu is infectious as hell when you watch it. Notice I said "watch" it's not nearly as exciting when you don't see the dancing. But the dancing elevates it to such a level that I can't see anything else coming close, even if I love Lift Me Up.
Best Animated Short
The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
Who will and should win: Ice Merchants
I know The Boy, The Mole, The Platitudes and the Basicness is the front runner but I refuse to entertain anything other than the true winner, Ice Merchants.
Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Who will and should win: Haulout
This is such an underwhelming category but Haulout was insane to behold. I hope it wins.
Best Live-Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
Who will win: An Irish Goodbye
Who should win: That or The Red Suitcase
There's a lot of love for Ireland at this awards show so I think they win here too. It's my favorite of the 5 as well, but The Red Suitcase is also a very strong short and would be worthy of a win here too.
I like your picks though I saw very few of the films nominated here. I just hope there's no repeat of what happened last year. That was embarrassing. They should've scribbled Will Smith's name and put Denzel or Benedict's name as the winner. Fuck Willy-Will, his ugly-ass wife, and his two rotten, untalented spoiled little shits! Plus, I was more of a Carlton boy!
ReplyDeleteI'm still salty Benedict Cumberbatch didn't walk away with everything for The Power of the Dog. That movie was so good.
DeleteIt still blows mind how everything is so in-line for an EEAAO big night. It's no secret that I'm not a fan of that movie, and the thought of it beating something like Banshees in Original Screenplay or Director blows my mind. It winning Best Picture over All Quiet, Banshees, Top Gun, and Women Talking doesn't compute for me. Ke Huy Quan winning over Barry Keoghan or Brendan Gleeson is baffling. But such is the 2023 awards season. LOL
ReplyDeleteI get it because I also liked all of those movies better than EEAAO as well, but I think what it represents will be worth it in the long run. A weird indie sci fi film as a Best Picture nominee sounds good. Ke Huy Quan I feel like is winning for more his story than his performance, which I frankly didn't find very good. But he just looks so excited every time he wins that I can't be mad at it.
DeleteIf del Toro's Pinocchio wins, it will be the first time in my life I am disappointed in him getting an award or acclaim for anything. I liked his version of the story, but Marcel is one of those rare films where I think the world would be a better place if everyone watched it.
ReplyDeleteI'm kind of torn on Elvis. I think Butler is very good in the role, but the movie had no business being nominated for most of what it's nominated for--certainly not Best Picture.
Same with del Toro. Marcel is just so unique and I hate that it's not the front runner. I really didn't care for Elvis outside of Butler's performance and his Hilaria Baldwin level commitment to the fake accent outside of the film has soured me on it a little. lol
DeleteI wanted to see Elvis but its off of Cogeco so I watched Living and loved that film with Bill Nighy but he will be the bridesmaid. I think Brendan Fraser will win but I'd be happy if Colin Farrell won even though I am not a fan of the movie I just thinkncutti g your fingers off to make a point is....stupid he needs to go to the shrink. I just couldn't get Into that.. it just stupid and pointless plus I hated to see the donkey die.
ReplyDeleteLet's see what will happen... I hope Michelle Yeoh wins and I wish Ac
Avatar would sink. Navalny is excellent and I hope he survives prison...wherever he is. Putin must die.. itried to watch the shorts and I liked the Red Suitcase. I liked the Boy, the Fox etc.. that one stuck with me.
I want to see Babylon and will try to see it this Friday. I enjoyed TAR but not sure it will get any love.
I would like to see Living! My theater got rid of it so quickly but I also don't want to pay $20 for it on VOD. I'll wait until it lands somewhere on streaming. Navalny going back to Russian was an insane move.
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