2021 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win; Who Should Win

The never ending Oscar season is almost to an end...until Cannes rolls around this summer and we start talking about it again. Ahead of the ceremony next week, here are my predictions. Let's see how I do!

Best Picture
“The Father”
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7″
Who will win: Nomadland
Who should win: Sound of Metal or Minari
I like Nomandland, but it's #4 on my Best Picture list. Sound of Metal, Minari and Trial come in above it for me. I just enjoyed them more, but I appreciate what Nomadland did and would be proud of all involved. 

Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg (“Another Round”)
David Fincher (“Mank”)
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”)
Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
Who will and should win: Chloe Zhao
While I prefer Minari and Another Round film wise, I think what Zhao did here is wonderful and she's on fire this season.

Best Actor
Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”)
Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”)
Gary Oldman (“Mank”)
Steven Yeun (“Minari”)
Who will and should win: Chadwick Boseman
This one is all but guaranteed and will make us all cry. 

Best Actress
Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”)
Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”)
Who will win: Viola Davis
Who should win: Davis, Kirby or Mulligan
Wow, this is the most competitive acting category I think I've seen since I started following the Oscars. I think Davis is going to win as she has the SAG support. 

Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Leslie Odom Jr. (“One Night in Miami”)
Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”)
LaKeith Stanfield (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Who will and should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Paul Raci is someone I'd also be very happy with winning but this is Daniel's. He was excellent. 

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”)
Olivia Colman (“The Father”)
Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”)
Youn Yuh-jung (“Minari”)
Who will win: Youn Yuh-jung
Who should win: Youn or Maria
I've been on Team Maria since seeing her in Borat but she hasn't won any of the big awards she's been up for. I think Youn is taking this one home, which makes me happy as well because I loved her work in Minari.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Sacha Baron Cohen and Co-Writers (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”)
Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton (“The Father”)
Chloe Zhao (“Nomadland”)
Kemp Powers (“One Night in Miami”)
Ramin Bahrani (“The White Tiger”)
Who will win: Nomadland
Who should win: That or One Night in Miami
One Night in Miami has a solid script, but it's not taking down Nomadland.

Best Original Screenplay
Will Berson, Shaka King, Keith Lucas, and Kenny Lucas (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Lee Isaac Chung (“Minari”)
Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”)
Derek Cianfrance, Abraham Marder, Darius Marder (“Sound of Metal”)
Aaron Sorkin (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Who will win: Emerald Fennell
Who should win: Literally anyone else
I feel bad saying that because I'm always for women winning all the Oscars but when it comes to the other movies here..I just liked them all so much more than Promising Young Woman, which I'm still mad about. I wanted to love that movie.  

Best Animated Feature
“Over the Moon”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
Who will win: Soul
Who should win: Wolfwalkers
Imagine if Wolfwalkers actually won...just imagine it. 

Best International Feature Film
“Another Round” (Denmark)
“Better Days” (Hong Kong)
“Collective” (Romania)
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” (Tunisia)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina) 
Who will and should win: Another Round
Quo Vadis, Aida? might put up a fight but I really hope Another Round prevails. This movie is so good I wish it was competing for Best Picture. This one is severely under nominated. 

Best Documentary
“Crip Camp”
“The Mole Agent”
“My Octopus Teacher”
Who will win: Crip Camp
Who should win:?
I'm so behind with these this year. I saw Crip Camp, which was fine. I started Octopus Teacher and immediately fell asleep (though my second covid vax was likely more to blame for that) I'm still annoyed two great docs in Disclosure and Class Action Park are just nowhere here. (yes, I know they might be going for TV noms but still)

Best Cinematography
Sean Bobbitt (“Judas and the Black Messiah”)
Erik Messerschmidt (“Mank”)
Dariusz Wolski (“News of the World”)
Joshua James Richards (“Nomadland”)
Phedon Papamichael (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”)
Who will and should win: Nomadland
I really love the cinematography in News of the World and Chicago 7 but I think for the tone of the film, Nomadland's was perfect.

Best Costume Design
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Who will and should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
At the beginning of the season, I expected this to go to Mank but I'm liking Ma Rainey's chances more.

Best Film Editing
“The Father”
“Promising Young Woman”
“Sound of Metal”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Who will and should win: Sound of Metal
I know I should predict Nomadland here but I'm going for Sound of Metal. I think they've got this. 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Who will and should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Just look at Viola Davis in this movie and give someone the Oscar. 

Best Original Score
“Da 5 Bloods”
“News of the World”
Who will win: Soul
Who should win: Minari
I really liked Soul's score and I'll be happy with it winning, but I prefer Minari. News of the World also had a wonderful score that I wouldn't mind winning either. 

Best Original Song
“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
“lo Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami”
Who will win: Speak Now
Who should win: Husavik
This one is tough, but I lean towards Speak Now. I wish Husavik would win because it just makes me laugh so much.

Best Production Design
“The Father”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“News of the World”
Who will and should win: The Father
After seeing The Father this week, it really should win this one. I suppose Mank could win here, but I'm sticking with this one.

Best Sound
“News of the World”
“Sound of Metal”
Who will and should win: Sound of Metal
Anything else will be a travesty. 

Best Visual Effects
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“The One and Only Ivan”
Who will and should win: Tenet
This category feels so empty without our usual blockbusters. I don't even know where to go here. Tenet did have great effects. Midnight Sky did too. Mulan's were...fine I guess and I haven't seen the others. 

Best Documentary Short Subject
“A Concerto Is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
“A Love Song for Latasha”
Who will win: Hunger Ward
Who should win: A Love Song for Latasha
I hated Hunger Ward but it's totally something the Academy will go for. A Love Song for Latasha was the strongest of these for me.

Best Animated Short Film
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens I Love You”
Who will and should win: If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera was the only one of these I haven't seen as of this posting, but If Anything Happens I Love you easily packs the biggest punch.  

Best Live Action Short Film 
“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”
Who will win: The Present
Who should win: That or Feeling Through
I saw all of these as well and I think The Present has the best shot of winning. It's very well made. I think I preferred Feeling Through over all.


  1. I hope "Husavik" wins though I kind of wish "Jah-Jah Ding-Dong" got nominated instead.

    Oh, and I have a spoiler for future awards predictions. Julia Louis-Dreyfus will both an Emmy and an Oscar for her role as Contessa Valentina Allegra de Fontaine aka Madame Hydra.

    I did not see that coming and man... that is godlike casting.

    1. I didn't see that coming either. I'm not familiar with the character but I love JLD so I'm all for her casting.

      Jah-Jah Ding Dong getting nominated would've been hysterical.

  2. As usual, I'm really behind on my Oscar watching. I'm convinced, having seen only two nominees in the category, that Soul is going to win for Animated Feature and it absolutely shouldn't for so many reasons.

    I'm excited to see Wolfwalkers. I've loved everything Tomm Moore has done.

    1. I really liked it! Song of the Sea is still my favorite from that company, but Wolfwalkers is great. I'd scream if it upset.

  3. I'm so behind on watching the nominees :\ I feel like I have no excuse since technically I have more time since I work from home now, alas… but hey I probably would still do a prediction post anyway, ahahaha

    I totally agree that Sound of Metal should win Sound Design and The Father should win in Production Design. I'm really rooting for Wolfwalkers too, it would be nice if this small Irish studio will finally win an Oscar!

    1. Song of the Sea should've won over Big Hero 6 too. I was rooting for HTTYD2 that year, but I saw Song of the Sea after the fact and that's one of my favorite animated movies now.

  4. I feel even more lost than last year...LOL. I did watch Minari and The Father. I love Minari especially the relationship between the grandmom and her grandson. the Father is well done but Minari is better. I had to look up Sound of Metal and am not one for heavy metal at all but it is about the lead and his deafness. It reminds me of Pete Townsend from The Who who is practically deaf due to the loudness of the band.

    1. Heavy Metal is only really prevalent at the beginning of the film, it's really worth the watch.

  5. I'm forever salty that the wrong Eurovision song was nominated but I get it. Still, having Jaja Ding Dong performed at the Oscars would have totally fit in with the crazy 12+ months we've all had.
    I really don't want Nomadland to win BP. I've nothing against the movie but it's going to be a boring win!

    1. I like Nomadland more for Zhao's achievements as a director rather than the actual story. Sound of Metal, Minari, and Trial were better movies over all for me.


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